Oh my. Take a look at this (another data leak) CVR chart for Manatee County, FL from the 2020 election:
If you don’t think you know what I’m about to say then go read some of my other recent posts — especially the pinned post on Pasco County, FL.
Short and simple: There are two successful and two unsuccessful attempts by ES&S software to shave votes for Biden in deeply, deeply red Manatee — each accompanied by some distress in the magenta gap line as the algo struggles to make progress.
First, from 70-115(K) votes there is an unsuccessful attempt to move Biden into the incremental lead. This may have been preceded at about 55 and even 15 with some weak algo engagement. However, you can see by the decline in the cumulative R % light red line that shaving of R votes is occurring.
Then you can see a short burst of shaving at around 135 that didn’t fully succeed and only made a small drop in the % line.
Then major vote shaving with Biden moved into the incremental running lead from 200 to 325 with heavy oscillation of the magenta gap line showing the algo working hard. The R % line declines through this phase as expected.
Finally, from 400 to the end they managed to again move Biden into the operational lead similar to the segment starting at 200 and the R % cumulative line once more declines into the finish.
My best guess is that instead of Trump ending up with ~58% it’s a decent guess that he would have been in the 70-80% range.
In short, where you see the Trump R % cumulative average light red line declining you see the magenta gap line struggling as the algo is likely bumped up against its limit of full D incremental/ running success at a limit of 75% R votes due to its 2:1 design framework.
81M indeed…